Regional concentration, transmission bottlenecks, and regulatory risk: The expansion of data centers in Mexico
Data centers in Mexico could increase their electrical power demand more than sixfold by the year 2031, driven by the boom in artificial intelligence (AI). However, a report by Banamex warns that the realization of this investment wave will depend on the capacity of the national transmission grid and public policy decisions.
Consumption projection and pressure on the power grid
Technological acceleration will radically transform the energy requirements of the IT sector in the country:
- Power capacity: The power required by equipment will increase from the 279 megawatts (MW) currently installed to approximately 1,730 MW in 2031, plus 205 MW currently under construction.
- Gross energy consumption: Operating continuously, IT equipment would consume 15.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year. Integrating cooling and auxiliary services, total demand would reach 18.2 TWh, a figure equivalent to 6% of Mexico's final electricity consumption in 2025.
- Regionalized pressure: Although the percentage represents a limited fraction nationwide, its operational impact will be considerable as it is concentrated in specific hubs with severe transformation and transmission constraints.
Querétaro as the epicenter and Cenace restrictions
The state of Querétaro represents the country's main point of operational and logistical friction:
- Infrastructure concentration: Querétaro accounts for nearly three-quarters of the national installed capacity. Its power could grow from the current 200 MW to more than 1,300 MW in 2031.
- Local impact: The additional 1,100 MW projected for the state are equivalent to 72% of the peak electricity demand recorded by the entire state of Querétaro during 2025.
- Saturation and costs: The National Energy Control Center (Cenace) acknowledges structural delays in interconnecting facilities, forcing developers to finance costly grid reinforcements so as not to compete for energy with other industries.
Regulatory framework, government stance, and CFE plans
The investment environment is subject to the Mexican State's energy policy definitions:
- 2025 Reform: It was established that at least 54% of the energy injected into the system must come from the State, increasing government planning and regulatory risk for private capital.
- Executive Branch stance: President Claudia Sheinbaum endorsed the installation of infrastructure for local AI development, but rejected turning Mexico into a data hub for other regions due to the high consumption of water and electricity.
- Initiatives underway: The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) and the Mexican Data Center Association (AMDC) agreed to review projects with requirements totaling 1,705 MW and proposed three pilot projects in Development Poles. Internationally, the International Energy Agency projects that global consumption by these centers will increase from 415 TWh in 2024 to 945 TWh in 2030.
At next+ we consider that the Banamex report proves that the main barrier to the massive adoption of AI in Mexico does not lie in the availability of capital or technology, but in energy transmission infrastructure. The massive concentration of projects in Querétaro tests CFE's execution capacity to develop lines and substations at the pace required by the digital economy. For executive committees, Chief Technology Officers, and infrastructure developers, the viability of new data centers will demand grid co-investment schemes, water efficiency, and strategic alignment with the Development Poles promoted by the federal government.