Private consumption in Mexico grew 0.15% monthly in June, less than the 0.37% registered in May, according to INEGI's Timely Indicator of Private Consumption. The annual rate moderated from 2.8% in May to 2.6% in June.
The data is not alarming. But it also does not confirm the boost that many businesses expected from the 2026 World Cup. The biggest sporting event on the planet was in Mexico during June. Consumption advanced at the slowest pace of the two-month period.
The second quarter would close with a quarterly growth of 1.13% in private consumption, a recovery from the 0.70% contraction in the first quarter. At an annual rate, the advance would be 2.50%, higher than the 2.40% of the previous quarter, but still far from the 3.93% registered in the fourth quarter of 2025.
In the accumulated first half, private consumption would show an advance of 2.45% compared to the same period in 2025, when it fell 0.29%. That is positive in terms of comparison. What it does not resolve is the deceleration of the pace: consumption grows, but more and more slowly.
Banco BASE points out that, even if the data for the second quarter are confirmed, a deceleration of private consumption persists compared to previous years. Kapital points in the same direction: positive monthly variations indicate that household spending continues to expand, but at a more gradual pace.
The behavior of consumption in June also anticipates the trend of GDP. If INEGI's estimates are confirmed, the second quarter would register positive quarterly growth, reversing the fall at the beginning of the year.
For the next+ team, the June data has a specific reading for companies and businesses that built their summer projections on the World Cup's economic impact. The tournament generated tourist influx, hotel occupancy, and consumption in specific sectors, but it did not produce the generalized effect of accelerated spending that some models anticipated. The underlying reason did not change with the sports calendar: the Mexican consumer enters the second half of the year with accumulated inflation, real wages under pressure, and lower confidence in the economic environment. These variables are not moved by a football match. For businesses planning the second half of the year, the IOCP's message is direct: consumption growth exists, but it is gradual and does not come with extraordinary impulses. Strategies that depended on a specific peak need to be reviewed towards sustained capture models.